Latest polls…

Good to see the Lib Dems up to 24% in the latest IPSOS-MORI poll.

Looking at MORI’s long term trends (and using their unweighted figure of 23% for comparability), we seem to be up +1%pt vs. the General Election and up up +3%pts vs. the last poll before Ming became leader.

Five months after Paddy started, we were on 8%, up +1%pt vs. the last poll before Paddy became leader

Five months after Charles started, we were on 15%, up +1%pt vs. the last poll before Charles became leader.

Thirteen months after the 2001 General Election, we were on 16%, down -2%pts on MORI’s General Election poll.

There are arguments about MORI’s methodology, but with the exception of ICM (which looks like an outlier), the other polls also show no burning need to panic, with our polling up flat or slightly up since Ming took over. Generally long-term trends are by far the most useful things to look at with these polls since methodology makes short-term trends and absolute numbers unreliable bases for comparison.

Looking at the current political situation, Ming also has the non-trivial advantage of having done the important thing of being right on the major issues. Cameron’s failure to show any leadership in the face of the crisis in the Middle East will not have done him any favours in the long term. It all suggests that there is no need to panic just yet.

Author: Martin Tod

Martin Tod is a marketing professional and Liberal Democrat living in Winchester.

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